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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


529 
ABNT20 KNHC 241958
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued for the system located to 
the north-northeast of Bermuda. 

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane  
Sam, located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward 
Islands. 

Updated: Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that a 
well-defined center has formed with a surface low located a couple 
hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda interacting with an 
upper-level trough. In addition, the low is producing gale-force 
winds on the north side of its circulation. Additional development 
into a subtropical storm is now expected, and advisories will likely 
be initiated this afternoon as the system moves slowly toward the 
north-northwest. Additional information on this system, including 
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of 
Odette, is located less than 600 miles west of the westernmost 
Azores.  Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated near the 
low, and strong upper-level winds are now expected to prevent 
further development as this system moves gradually southward until 
dissipation.  Additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by 
the end of this weekend.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression could form by the middle of next week while the system 
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin/Landsea


Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
    ...SAM'S INTENSIFICATION RESUMES AS THE HURRICANE SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 24 the center of Sam was located near 12.1, -44.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Sam

  • Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 9
    Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242052 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 ...SAM'S INTENSIFICATION RESUMES AS THE HURRICANE SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 44.8W ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 44.8 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed and turn toward the west-northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next several days, and Sam is expected to become a major hurricane on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin ]]>
  • Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 9
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 242051 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 44.8W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 44.8W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 44.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.3N 46.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.7N 48.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.1N 49.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.3N 51.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.1N 52.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 16.9N 55.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.9N 58.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 44.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN ]]>
  • Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 9
    Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 242057 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 Sam's structure on satellite has improved this afternoon, with overshooting cloud tops rotating quickly around the small central dense overcast, providing the appearance that the hurricane is mixing out the dry air that affected its core structure this morning. In fact, the last few visible satellite images suggest that a small eye is clearing out within the cirrus canopy. Interestingly, a recent 1930 UTC SSMIS pass suggests concentric bands are also forming in Sam's core structure and it remains to be seen how that structure will affect the wind field evolution of the hurricane. The latest subjective Dvorak intensities estimates form TAFB and SAB were a consensus T4.5/75 kt, while the latest SATCON and ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS have also increased this afternoon. The current advisory intensity has been set to 75-kt. Given the recent trends on satellite, this may be conservative. The motion of Sam has remained on the same heading, though the storm is beginning to slow down with the estimate now at 280/10 kt. An additional slowdown in forward motion is anticipated in the short-term as the mid-level ridging shuffles to the northwest of the tropical cyclone, impeding its forward motion. However, after 72 hours, this same ridge is expected to shift back to the northeast of Sam as a deep-layer trough off the Eastern United States coastline becomes established. Track guidance spread increases towards the end of the forecast, with the ECMWF and GFS remaining at odds, with the former on the equatorward side, and the latter on the poleward side of the track envelope. The consensus aids, however, have changed little from the previous advisory and the latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one. Now that Sam appears to have mixed out the dry air seen this morning, intensification, likely rapid, is resuming. The only fly in the ointment is the current concentric banding structure on microwave imagery, which hints at the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle. Assuming the smaller eye will not collapse in the short term, rapid intensification appears likely over the next 12-24 hours and the intensity has been raised in the short term, taking Sam to major hurricane intensity by tomorrow. The latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a slightly higher peak at 120-kt in 48 hours followed by very gradual decay, due to a subtle increase in vertical wind shear, potentially some upwelling effects due to the slow forward notion, and eyewall replacement cycles that could lead to a broadening of the wind field. The latest NHC intensity forecast starts out on the high side of the intensity guidance but ends up very close to the HCCA consensus aid by the end of the forecast period. Regardless of the details, Sam is expected to be a significant hurricane through the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 12.1N 44.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 12.3N 46.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 12.7N 48.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 13.1N 49.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 13.5N 50.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 14.3N 51.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 15.1N 52.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 16.9N 55.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 18.9N 58.1W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin ]]>
  • Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 242052 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN ]]>
  • Hurricane Sam Graphics
    Hurricane Sam 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Sep 2021 20:53:47 GMT

    Hurricane Sam 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Sep 2021 20:53:47 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Subtropical

  • Summary for Subtropical Storm Teresa (AT4/AL192021)
    ...SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 24 the center of Teresa was located near 34.5, -64.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Teresa

  • Subtropical Storm Teresa Public Advisory Number 1
    Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 242052 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Teresa Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 64.5W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Teresa was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 64.5 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). Teresa should slow its forward motion and turn toward the north by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Teresa should dissipate in about two days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea ]]>
  • Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 1
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 242051 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 64.5W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 64.5W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 64.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 35.4N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 36.3N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 64.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA ]]>
  • Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 1
    Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 242056 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 The disturbance just north of Bermuda interacting with a mid- to upper-level low has developed a prominent band of deep convection within its eastern semicircle as well as a well-defined surface center. Additionally, the system is not displaying any significant baroclinicity (i.e., frontal boundaries), so it is not an extratropical cyclone. All of which indicates that the system has evolved into a subtropical cyclone. ASCAT-C scatterometer data from 1440Z suggested peak winds were around 40 kt, which is the basis for calling the system Subtropical Storm Teresa. The system is moving toward the northwest at 12 kt is it rounds the northern part of the mid- to upper-level low. By Saturday, Teresa should turn northward and then northeastward, as it begins to be caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast is based upon the TVCN track consensus technique. Teresa will not be long-lived. A developing extratropical system forming off of New England should absorb Teresa between 36 and 48 hours. Until then, the subtropical storm has a small window to intensify slightly while traversing lukewarm water and encountering moderate vertical shear. If deep convection develops near the system's center, then Teresa could evolve into a tropical storm. However, it is more likely that Teresa will remain a subtropical storm until dissipation in around two days. It is worth noting that Teresa will likely be the 9th so-called "shortie" of the 2021 hurricane season -- systems that are short- lived and relatively weak. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 34.5N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 35.4N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 36.3N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea ]]>
  • Subtropical Storm Teresa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 078 FONT14 KNHC 242052 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA ]]>
  • Subtropical Storm Teresa Graphics
    Subtropical Storm Teresa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Sep 2021 20:58:44 GMT

    Subtropical Storm Teresa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Sep 2021 20:58:44 GMT ]]>

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241724
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 24 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 24 Sep 2021 20:59:21 GMT