000ABNT20 KNHC 302319TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Near the Southeastern U.S.:A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week.  An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf.  Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Bucci

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 01 Jul 2025 02:59:08 GMT

000ABPZ20 KNHC 302317TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple of hundred miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. South of Southwestern Mexico:An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$Forecaster Jelsema

Hurricane for

• Summary for Hurricane Flossie (EP1/EP062025)
  ...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Mon Jun 30 the center of Flossie was located near 16.5, -104.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Flossie

• Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 8
  Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 104.3W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.3 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with a gradual slowing in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema NNNN]]>
• Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 8
  Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....105NE 90SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA NNNN]]>
• Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 7
  Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 473 WTPZ41 KNHC 302041 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 Flossie's satellite presentation has continued to improve throughout the day, with convective cold cloud tops near -80C over the low-level center, and well-defined curve banding features. An earlier scatterometer pass around 1629 UTC showed a peak wind of 47 kt, and helped to refine the current tropical-storm-force wind radii. Latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, including a T/3.5 from TAFB. Given the satellite trends, the intensity is set to 55 kt closes to UW-CIMSS ADT and the TAFB Dvorak estimates. The storm is within a favorable environment to continue strengthening, current SSTs are around 29-30C, with low vertical wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher end of the guidance envelope and now has a peak intensity of 90 kt, closest to the regional hurricane HAFS models. In about 48 h, environmental conditions become increasingly more hostile, with drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady weakening trend. By day 4, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone as the system will struggle to produce convection within the harsh environment. The initial estimated motion is toward the northwest, or 305/10 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected throughout the forecast period steered by a mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the left and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, later today through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 16.2N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 108.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 21.0N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 22.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z 24.9N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>
• Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
  Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 124 FOPZ11 KNHC 302040 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 10 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 12 13(25) 3(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) L CARDENAS 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 42(71) 16(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 19(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 24(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>
• Hurricane Flossie Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 23:57:52 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 21:22:18 GMT ]]>