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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 220523
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Beta, located over the Texas coast, on Hurricane Teddy, 
located about 600 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and has 
re-initiated advisories on regenerated Tropical Storm Paulette, 
located about 300 miles south-southeast of the Azores.

Showers and thunderstorms extending from the Bahamas westward 
through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico are associated with a frontal system. This system is 
forecast to move slowly southward over Cuba during the next couple 
of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday.  
Environmental conditions could be marginally conducive for some 
slight development over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this 
week.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is 
possible over portions of Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Paulette are issued under WMO header WTNT31 
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.  Forecast/Advisories on 
Paulette are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS 
header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT1/AL172020)
    ...PAULETTE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE AZORES... As of 3:00 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 the center of Paulette was located near 33.9, -25.3 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Paulette

  • Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 40
    Issued at 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...PAULETTE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 25.3W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 25.3 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Tuesday night. A much slower eastward or east-southeastward motion is expected by late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early Tuesday. Gradual weakening should begin by late Tuesday and continue through Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 40
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 25.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 25.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 26.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 34.4N 22.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 34.7N 20.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.1N 18.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.3N 16.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 34.7N 16.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.0N 16.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N 18.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 25.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 40
    Issued at 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220235 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 Deep convection associated with the post-tropical remnants of Paulette that moved southward to the southwest of the Azores over the past few days has become better organized over the past 6-12 hours. An ASCAT over pass from a few hours ago indicate that increase in convective organization has result in strengthening and the system is being classified as a tropical cyclone once again. The ASCAT revealed peak winds of just over 45 kt, and given that instruments typical undersampling, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. The scatterometer data also indicated a small radius of maximum winds of about 30 n mi, therefore the system is being classified as a tropical cyclone rather than subtropical. Paulette is moving east-northeastward or 075/14 kt. The tropical storm should continue moving east-northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough dropping southeastward over the northeastern Atlantic, and the global models are in reasonably good agreement through 24-36 hours. After that time, there is significant bifurcation in the track guidance with the GFS, HWRF, and HMON all taking a stronger Paulette faster east-northeastward over the eastern Atlantic, while the UKMET and ECMWF show a weaker cyclone slowing down and turning west-southwestward in the low-level steering flow late in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast shows Paulette slowing down and turning southward, and then southwestward between 48-96 h, but it's not nearly as far west as the UKMET and ECMWF models. Given the large spread in the track guidance at that time period, the NHC forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus. Paulette is already over marginal SSTs and cooler waters lie ahead along the forecast track. This, along with moderate vertical wind shear should result in gradual weakening beginning on Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Paulette to weaken to a tropical depression in 48-60 h, and become a remnant low shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 33.9N 25.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 34.4N 22.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 34.7N 20.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 35.1N 18.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 35.3N 16.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 34.7N 16.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 34.0N 16.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z 33.1N 18.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 220234 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
    Tropical Storm Paulette 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 02:37:48 GMT

    Tropical Storm Paulette 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 03:25:21 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)
    ...CENTER OF BETA MOVING FARTHER INLAND NEAR LAVACA BAY... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... As of 1:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 the center of Beta was located near 28.6, -96.5 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Beta

  • Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 18A
    Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220554 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...CENTER OF BETA MOVING FARTHER INLAND NEAR LAVACA BAY... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 96.5W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM ESE OF PORT LAVACA TEXAS ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from Port Aransas, Texas, to Sargent, Texas, has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 96.5 West. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow north to northeast motion is expected today, and a faster east-northeastward motion should begin tonight and continue on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move near the coast of southeastern Texas today and on Wednesday. Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was reported at Port Lavaca, Texas, over the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Sargent, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area today. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 18
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220246 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS...TEXAS INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 96.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 96.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 96.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 93.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.4N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.7N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 96.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 18
    Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220247 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 There has been a recent increase in convection along the Texas coast just to the north of Beta's center this evening. A blend of flight-level and SFMR winds from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Beta's peak intensity remains around 40 kt. The aircraft has reported a minimum central pressure of around 999 mb, which is unchanged from earlier today. West-southwesterly vertical wind shear and land interaction should gradually weaken the cyclone over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above model guidance through 24 hours since a significant portion of the circulation is forecast to remain over water. Strong vertical wind shear is expected to prevent re-strengthening when Beta moves near or just offshore of the Upper Texas coast in a couple of days. Beta is moving northwestward or 325/3 kt. The tropical storm should move just inland along the central Texas coast overnight, but it is expected to become nearly stationary on Tuesday as steering currents collapse. A weak trough over the south-central United States should begin to steer Beta east-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed should continue until dissipation in 72-96 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas coast through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 28.4N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 24/0000Z 29.5N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 24/1200Z 30.4N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/0000Z 31.7N 90.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 220247 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) CAMERON LA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) JASPER TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GALVESTON TX 34 16 14(30) 6(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GALVESTON TX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 21 12(33) 2(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) AUSTIN TX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 7 10(17) 3(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 4 9(13) 6(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 45 15(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) PORT O CONNOR 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 16 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Beta Graphics
    Tropical Storm Beta 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 05:55:32 GMT

    Tropical Storm Beta 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 03:40:47 GMT ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Beta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
    Tropical Storm Beta Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
    Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 03:52:31 GMT ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
    Tropical Storm Beta Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
    Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 05:55:34 GMT ]]>

Local Statement for Austin / San Antonio, TX
Issued at  1012 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA
Issued at  1027 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Local Statement for Corpus Christi, TX
Issued at  130 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TX
Issued at  132 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
    ...TEDDY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 2:00 AM AST Tue Sep 22 the center of Teddy was located near 37.5, -62.1 with movement NNW at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Teddy

  • Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 39A
    Issued at 200 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220555 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 39A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 200 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 ...TEDDY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.5N 62.1W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 62.1 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy should begin to weaken tonight and Wednesday, and become a strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From today through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 39
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220245 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH * NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE * MAGDALEN ISLANDS * PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 61.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 80SE 20SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......240NE 240SE 180SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 330SE 420SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 61.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 61.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.4N 62.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW. 34 KT...410NE 320SE 280SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.1N 63.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...320NE 290SE 270SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.6N 61.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...190NE 260SE 210SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 49.0N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 170SE 190SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 52.8N 54.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 190SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 58.1N 51.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...240NE 250SE 150SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 61.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS ]]>
  • Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 39
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220248 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter found Teddy a little stronger this evening. Flight level peak wind was 111 kt in the east quadrant and the highest observed SFMR wind was 69 kt. A blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. Teddy is accelerating toward the north in response to a mid- to upper tropospheric mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest. Dynamic forcing produced by the aforementioned baroclinic system and warm (27-28C) waters associated with the Gulf Stream could induce a short period of strengthening during the next few hours, or so. Through the remaining portion of the forecast period, Teddy will traverse cooler oceanic temperatures north of the Gulf Stream and lose its baroclinic support inducing a gradual weakening trend as the post-tropical cyclone quickly moves over eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland. After that time, Teddy should become absorbed by a larger non-tropical, high latitude low pressure system. There still remains much uncertainty as to whether or not Teddy will complete its extratropical transition prior to reaching Nova Scotia. The global models show the cyclone merged or embedded in the baroclinic zone, but the associated simulated infrared presentation shows Teddy maintaining a rather small warm, inner core. Regardless of it classification during that time, high winds, heavy rain, storm surge and destructive waves are still predicted for the south coast of Nova Scotia. Teddy's horizontal wind profile is forecast to nearly double during the next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the aforementioned baroclinic system. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the near shore waters of the northeast United States. The forecast wind radii at the 24 hour period and beyond are based on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of a bias-corrected average of the global and regional models. Please see products from your local office for more information about marine hazards, including extremely dangerous rip currents expected over much of the western Atlantic beaches. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late Tuesday through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 35.6N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 38.4N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 41.1N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 44.6N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 49.0N 58.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/1200Z 52.8N 54.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0000Z 58.1N 51.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts ]]>
  • Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 220247 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 12(12) 43(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 17(17) 48(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 4( 4) 54(58) 12(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 14(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X 1( 1) 48(49) 26(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 22(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 28(28) 49(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 32(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X 21(21) 36(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 15(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MONCTON NB 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BERMUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS ]]>
  • Hurricane Teddy Graphics
    Hurricane Teddy 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 05:56:49 GMT

    Hurricane Teddy 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 03:33:17 GMT ]]>

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220526
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 21 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lowell, located several hundred miles southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Lowell (EP2/EP172020)
    ...LOWELL HEADING DUE WEST OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 the center of Lowell was located near 17.7, -114.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Lowell

  • Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 220231 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020 ...LOWELL HEADING DUE WEST OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 114.5W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 114.5 West. Lowell is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and Lowell could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220231 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 75SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.4N 116.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.0N 118.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.5N 120.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.9N 121.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 123.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 20.0N 128.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 131.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 6
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220231 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Lowell's satellite presentation has changed little during the past several hours. Lowell remains a sheared tropical cyclone with a few new bursts of deep convection evident to the west of the rather poorly defined and exposed surface circulation center. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory and is in best agreement with the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Modest northeasterly shear is still impinging over the eastern half of the cyclone and this inhibiting factor should relax within the next 12 hours or so. As a result, Lowell should strengthen with time through the 48 to 60 hour period as the cyclone traverses warm water and continues moving within a moist surrounding environment. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, Lowell is expected to enter a more stable and drier marine layer which should cause the cyclone to gradual weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the NOAA HCCA consensus and the Decay SHIPS, and above the LGEM which indicates very little change in strength during the next 5 days. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/11 kt. Low- to mid tropospheric easterly flow produced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of Lowell should steer it in a generally west-northwestward motion through Wednesday night. Around the 60 hour period, a turn back toward the west is expected as the aforementioned ridge builds farther west. The official forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 17.7N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 18.4N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 19.0N 118.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 19.5N 120.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 19.9N 121.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 20.0N 123.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 20.0N 125.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 20.0N 128.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 20.1N 131.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220231 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 50(52) 11(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 17(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 48(53) 8(61) 1(62) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 5(25) X(25) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 12(34) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Lowell Graphics
    Tropical Storm Lowell 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 02:34:55 GMT

    Tropical Storm Lowell 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 03:48:26 GMT ]]>