651 ABNT20 KNHC 171745TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FLIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD200 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newlyformed Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located in the central Tropical Atlantic.East-Central Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical Atlantic.  Regardless of development, this system will continue to bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.Eastern Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of west Africa by Friday. Some slow development of this system is possible as it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic this weekend into early next week.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.&&Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.$$Forecaster Lamers/Blake/Taylor

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT2/AL072025)
  ...GABRIELLE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 17 the center of Gabrielle was located near 17.5, -46.6 with movement NNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

• Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 2
  Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025 990 WTNT32 KNHC 171457 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025 ...GABRIELLE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 46.6W ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of poorly defined Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 46.6 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). An erratic northwestward to west-northwestward motion at a reduced forward speed is anticipated across the tropical and subtropical central Atlantic during the next few days. Satellite-derived winds indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours but some gradual intensification is forecast over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, primarily in the eastern semicircle of the storm. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Taylor/Blake]]>
• Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 2
  Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 000 WTNT22 KNHC 171456 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 46.6W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 46.6W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 46.3W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.8N 50.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.8N 52.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.7N 54.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.5N 56.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 27.4N 60.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 46.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER TAYLOR/BLAKE]]>
• Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 2
  Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025 000 WTNT42 KNHC 171458 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025 Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the large system is not well-organized, with an elongated circulation oriented from north-northwest to south-southeast containing a few embedded swirls. The advisory center is a mean center of those swirls, with any associated convection well east of the position due to southwesterly shear. While it wouldn't appear so from conventional satellite data, a recent scatterometer pass indicates upwards of 40-kt winds present, generally northeast and southeast of the center of circulation. Although the system is at best marginally well defined, there is enough data to support an initial intensity of 40 kt, and the depression is named Gabrielle. Little strengthening is anticipated over the next 48 hours as Gabrielle faces an unfavorable shear environment from an upper-level trough and a possible center re-formation, and the forecast intensity remains nearly steady through Friday. By this weekend, a more conducive environment is anticipated, which should allow for gradual intensification. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by 96 hours. The NHC intensity forecast remains fairly similar to the previous forecast cycle, but it should be noted that there remains considerable spread in the solutions and overall forecast intensity confidence is low. Gabrielle is well away from land and about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands. The current estimated motion is north-northwestward, but this is highly uncertain as the center could be re-forming to the north. The system is forecast to move northwestward to west-northwestward due to the subtropical ridge for the next several days. While the forecast has been adjusted to the north from the previous one, this is almost exclusively due to the jump in the initial position. This is a highly uncertain forecast until a better defined center forms. Based on the recent trends, this system should pass well east and north of the Windward and Leeward Islands, but interests in Bermuda should monitor forecasts during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.5N 46.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 19.5N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 20.8N 50.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 21.8N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 22.7N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 23.5N 56.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 27.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Taylor/Blake]]>
• Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
  Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 006 FONT12 KNHC 171457 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER TAYLOR/BLAKE]]>
• Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 15:02:35 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 15:21:57 GMT ]]>

000ABPZ20 KNHC 171716TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite derived winds depict that the low is becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the east Pacific.*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.$$Forecaster Kelly

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 17 Sep 2025 18:01:50 GMT