000ABNT20 KNHC 201143TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Two, located over the northeastern Gulf of America.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.&&Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.$$Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Depression Two (AT2/AL022026)
  ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED TO MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 the center of Two was located near 28.5, -85.4 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Two

• Tropical Depression Two Public Advisory Number 4
  Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200846 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED TO MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 85.4W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Alabama Gulf coast from the Florida border to the Mississippi border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to the MS/AL border A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48 hours. Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be required over the next day or two. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located by aircraft reconnaissance near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 85.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Aircraft data indicates that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1006 mb (29.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight into Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1 to 3 ft Mobile Bay...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 6 inches through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin]]>
• Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 4
  Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200845 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026 0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.4W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.4W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.7N 85.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.8N 89.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.7N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 93.0W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N 95.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 85.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>
• Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 4
  Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200850 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 The tropical depression continues to have a fairly unimpressive appearance on satellite imagery, with just a few fragments of deep convection around the circulation center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has been sampling the system this morning, finding that the pressure continues to gradually decrease with a peak 925 mb flight level wind of 38 kt. This data is the primary justification for increasing the winds slightly to 30 kt for this advisory. Recon fixes indicate that the depression is now moving slowly northwestward at 320/3 kt. The tropical cyclone remains sandwiched between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over the Rockies and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas. Over time, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to become the dominant steering feature as a longwave trough moves into the northeastern United States. The byproduct of this change is that the system should begin to gradually turn more west-northwestward and westward by the middle of this week. This track should bring the cyclone near or along the Gulf coast, approaching the mouth of the Mississippi River by 72 h. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a little northward over these first few days, and the NHC track forecast was also shifted in that direction, blending the simple consensus aid TVCN with the Google DeepMind (GDMI) track guidance. As mentioned previously, the depression's broad structure and mid-level dry air are keeping the convection limited. Thus, its intensification continues to be gradual. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue to slowly intensify while the shear remains low to moderate. After 36 h, northeasterly shear is expected to increase markedly, and the guidance is coming into better agreement that this should halt additional intensification after that time. With the northward shift in the track, the tropical cyclone is more likely to be disrupted by land interaction beyond 60 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows gradual weakening afterwards. This intensity forecast still remains sensitive to the ultimate track, though it is notable that the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean only tracks the cyclone out to 72 h, suggesting the majority of its members dissipate the system beyond that period. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous cycle after 72 h, but it wouldn't be surprising if future adjustments are needed if more guidance trends towards a further inland solution. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama coast beginning tonight into Tuesday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. Interests in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 28.5N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 28.7N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 29.8N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 29.7N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 29.6N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/0600Z 29.5N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin]]>
• Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
  Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 620 FONT12 KNHC 200847 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026 0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) GFAM 290N 850W 34 18 5(23) 2(25) X(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 8(10) 5(15) 2(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFAM 290N 870W 34 6 30(36) 21(57) 3(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) GFAM 290N 870W 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GFAM 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) GFAM 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 1(16) 1(17) GFAM 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GFAM 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GFAM 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 3(16) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) GFAM 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFAM 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>
• Tropical Depression Two Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Jul 2026 09:22:40 GMT ]]>

Issued at 503 AM EDT

Issued at 416 AM CDT

000ABPZ20 KNHC 201140TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elida, located well west of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Fausto, located several hundred miles west-southwest of southwestern Mexico. Eastern and Central East Pacific:A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.South of Hawaii:Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located well south of the Hawaiian Islands remain disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system as it moves generally westward during the next several days.   * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Fausto (EP1/EP062026)
  ...FAUSTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 the center of Fausto was located near 12.9, -115.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Fausto

• Tropical Storm Fausto Public Advisory Number 6
  Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 200832 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fausto Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...FAUSTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 115.6W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 115.6 West. Fausto is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected through Tuesday. The cyclone is forecast to slow somewhat through Wednesday before gradually increasing its forward speed later in the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Fausto is forecast to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)]]>
• Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 6
  Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 200832 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026 0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 115.6W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 75SE 90SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 115.6W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.8N 116.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 140SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.0N 118.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 130SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.9N 119.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.9N 123.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.3N 125.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 17.9N 130.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 160NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.8N 135.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 110SW 160NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)]]>
• Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 6
  Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 041 WTPZ41 KNHC 200833 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Although modest northerly vertical wind shear continues to impart a slight tilt to the vortex, a well-established upper-level outflow over the southern semicircle has allowed the convective organization to improve over the past few hours. As a result, the low-level circulation center remains located near the northern edge of the deepest convection, which was confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass. The scatterometer data also sampled peak surface winds of around 45 kt in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone, which is consistent with the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. Based on the slightly improved satellite presentation and the recent scatterometer data, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt. The initial motion estimate is toward the west-northwest, or 290/10 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is forecast to build westward in the wake of Elida, steering Fausto on a west-northwestward track during the next couple of days. As the ridge strengthens and expands westward, the cyclone is expected to gradually slow and bend slightly more westward through Wednesday. Thereafter, Fausto should resume a west-northwestward motion while accelerating later in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Although modest northerly shear is likely contributing to Fausto's asymmetric structure, the overall environment remains conducive for strengthening, with warm sea surface temperatures, deep moisture, and improving upper-level conditions. Steady strengthening is expected today, followed by a period of rapid intensification forecast over the next couple of days, with Fausto forecast to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours. The cyclone is expected to reach its peak intensity in about 60 hours or around midweek. Thereafter, guidance suggest that decreasing upper-level divergence and a somewhat drier mid-level environment should induce a gradual weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope through about 60 h, then lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 12.9N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 13.8N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 15.0N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 15.9N 119.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 16.9N 123.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 17.3N 125.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 17.9N 130.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 18.8N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)]]>
• Tropical Storm Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
  Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 200833 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026 0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X 23(23) 53(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 3(43) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 53(56) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)]]>
• Tropical Storm Fausto Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Jul 2026 09:33:43 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP5/EP052026)
  ...ELIDA LOSING DEEP CONVECTION... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 the center of Elida was located near 25.3, -127.1 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Elida

• Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 23
  Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 200847 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...ELIDA LOSING DEEP CONVECTION... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 127.1W ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 127.1 West. Elida is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast the during the next couple days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated. Elida is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California during the next several days. These swells will likely result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 23
  Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 200846 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026 0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 127.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 60SE 0SW 140NW. 4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 300SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 127.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.2N 127.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.0N 127.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.7N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 34.6N 127.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 36.7N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 127.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 23
  Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 690 WTPZ45 KNHC 200848 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Satellite imagery shows convection associated with Elida continues to fade as the cyclone encounters cooler sea surface temperatures, drier air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear. A recent partial ASCAT-C pass indicates the system still has winds of around 42 kt, so the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. Gradual weakening is expected through the forecast period as the hostile environmental conditions persist, with the cyclone forecast to degenerate into a remnant low and then eventually dissipate into an open trough in a few days. The latest TAFB satellite intensity estimate was too weak to classify because of the lack of persistent deep convection, suggesting that Elida could degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone sooner than currently forecast if these satellite trends continue. Elida has turned toward the north-northwest and appears to be increasing its forward speed, with the latest motion estimated at 340/11 kt. This north-northwestward then northward motion should continue the next few days as the cyclone moves between a deep-layer trough to its northwest and a ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The NHC track forecast is near the previous, and lies near the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 25.3N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 27.2N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 30.0N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 21/1800Z 32.7N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0600Z 34.6N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1800Z 36.7N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
  Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 663 FOPZ15 KNHC 200847 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026 0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Jul 2026 09:28:08 GMT ]]>