000
ABNT20 KNHC 192300
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 19 Oct 2018 23:01:40 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192300
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Vicente, located just offshore the Pacific
coast of Guatemala.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are expected to remain favorable for further development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form tonight or tomorrow
while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, well
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Vicente are issued
under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Vicente are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
  ...TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORMS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA... ...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DUE TO HEAVY RAINS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 the center of Vicente was located near 13.3, -92.2 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Vicente

• Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 2
  Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 192036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORMS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA... ...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DUE TO HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 92.2W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 92.2 West. Vicente is moving slowly toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the west and west-southwest, with some increase in forward speed, is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente should gradually move away from the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Vicente is a small tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, Vicente is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with local amounts to 15 inches across portions of El Salvador and southern Guatemala, with 3 to 6 inches and local amounts to 10 inches near the Pacific coast of southeastern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
• Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 2
  Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 192035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 92.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 92.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 92.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.6N 93.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.3N 94.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.9N 95.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.7N 96.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.7N 99.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.0N 106.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 92.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
• Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 2
  Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 Although tiny, the cyclone continues to display well-defined convective banding. The system's quick formation and small size make it difficult to have high confidence in its current intensity, and the various subjective and objective estimates range from T1.8/28 kt from the ADT to T3.0/45 kt from SAB. As a compromise, the intensity is set at 35 kt, which is closest to the TAFB estimate and the most recent SATCON number, and the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Vicente. As noted this morning, warm waters and low shear should induce further strengthening during the next 48 hours. On one hand, this intensification could be more than what is being indicated by the models, since small systems can have a tendency to gain strength quickly. On the other hand, Vicente will be interacting with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event during the next 48 hours, and the storm could end up ingesting some drier, more stable air into its circulation. The NHC intensity forecast favors the former scenario and is a little above the guidance envelope for the first 2-3 days. After day 3, an increase in shear, interaction with another possible tropical cyclone to the west, and possible interaction with land could all conspire to arrest the intensification trend, and weakening is expected by the end of the forecast period. It is also possible that Vicente could dissipate before the end of the 5-day period. This scenario is reminiscent of, and has similarities to, the interaction of Tropical Storm Ileana and Hurricane John back in early August. Vicente is moving very slowly northwestward, or 305/2 kt. The track models are indicating that the ongoing gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec may have a greater influence of Vicente than previously thought, forcing the storm to turn west-southwestward in the next 24-48 hours. After 48 hours, Vicente should gradually enter the flow between mid-level ridging over Mexico and low pressure west of Mexico, causing it to turn back to the west and northwest on days 3 through 5. The new NHC track forecast is not too different from the morning forecast during that period, and it's closest to the paths shown by the GFS, HCCA, and FSSE guidance, which would bring the center close to the coast of Mexico later in the forecast period. There are considerable speed differences, however, and the NHC forecast splits the difference between the fast ECMWF solution and the slow GFS scenario. Even though Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast tonight and on Saturday, heavy rainfall, with possible life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 13.3N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 13.6N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 13.3N 94.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 12.9N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 12.7N 96.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 13.7N 99.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 20.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
• Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
  Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 192036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 27(29) 12(41) 1(42) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 10N 95W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
• Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Oct 2018 20:38:18 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Oct 2018 21:21:58 GMT ]]>