895 ABNT20 KNHC 151751TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Beven

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 15 Oct 2026 20:45:28 GMT

896 ABPZ20 KNHC 151730TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Simon, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and on Hurricane Trudy, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.South of Southern Mexico:An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the second half of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the east to central portion of the East Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.$$Forecaster Papin

Hurricane for

• Summary for Hurricane Trudy (EP1/EP212026)
  ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TRUDY... As of 12:00 PM CST Thu Oct 15 the center of Trudy was located near 13.4, -101.6 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Trudy

• Hurricane Trudy Public Advisory Number 9a
  Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 689 WTPZ31 KNHC 151739 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Trudy Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 1200 PM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TRUDY... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 101.6W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo southward to Zihuatanejo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue monitor the progress of Trudy. Additional watches will likely be required later today for portions of these areas. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Trudy was located by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 101.6 West. Trudy is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A continued motion toward the north-northwest is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest this weekend. On the forecast track, Trudy is expected to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and Trudy is forecast to become a major hurricane by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through the weekend across Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inch with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Michoacán. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding through the weekend, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Trudy, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next day or so and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven]]>
• Hurricane Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 9
  Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 338 WTPZ21 KNHC 151457 TCMEP1 HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 1500 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 101.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 101.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 101.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.6N 101.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.6N 102.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.7N 103.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 104.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.4N 105.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 20.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 20.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 101.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>
• Hurricane Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 9
  Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 651 WTPZ41 KNHC 151458 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 900 AM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 Trudy appears to be undergoing a period of rapid intensification. After the previous advisory, there were several microwave images that showed the hurricane has developed an eyewall, with a cyan ring noted on the 37 GHz channel of the 1037 UTC GMI and more recent 1250 UTC WSF-M pass. This signature is often a harbinger or indicates that rapid intensification is underway. On geostationary satellite Trudy has been maintaining a healthy central dense overcast with cold cloud tops between -75 to -80 C with new bursts of convection fully wrapping around the circulation as it becomes more symmetric. The subjective Dvorak estimate at 12 UTC was T4.5/77 kt, but given the improving structure seen on microwave imagery, the initial intensity is being set at 80 kt this advisory, which is on the high end of the intensity estimates. This indicates that Trudy has intensified 30 kt in the past 24 h, qualifying as rapid intensification. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to sample the hurricane and should provide critial in-situ data to help refine the forecast this afternoon. Trudy is now estimated to be moving slowly north-northwestward, or 335 degrees at 5 kt. Over the next 24-36 h Trudy is expected to maintain this heading but at a slow pace as its steering is maintained by two ridges, one to its east and another to its north. These features are split by a mid- to upper-level trough that is draped across the Yucatan Peninsula, weakening the overall steering flow. How these synoptic features interact over the next several days is leading to a lot of track uncertainty over the next few days, and there are some track solutions (GFS, ECMWF) that show Trudy making landfall. The latest NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward compared to the prior one, following the trends in the guidance. This track is blending the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) and also places a little weight on the latest ECMWF track forecast. With that said, given the spread of the deterministic and ensemble track guidance this cycle, this forecast is lower confidence than usual. Now that Trudy has developed an inner-core, intensification is likely to be rapid in the short-term. Environmental conditions are quite favorable (shear under 10 kt, sea-surface temperatures 28-29 C, and abundant moisture) and SHIPS-RI indices are elevated for a 30-40 kt increase in intensity over the next 24 h. Thus, the first part of this intensity forecast was raised from the previous advisory, showing Trudy becoming a major hurricane in 12-24 h, and peaking as a 125 kt Category 4 hurricane in 36 h. This part of the intensity forecast is on the upper end of the guidance. Thereafter, both the GFS and ECMWF based SHIPS guidance shows southwesterly vertical wind shear increasing markedly, and this will also be the period where Trudy nears the coast of Mexico, where terrain-induced effects will likely start to affect the circulation. These combined effects are now forecast to lead to weakening beginning in 48 h and continuing through the rest of the forecast. One big caveat with this intensity forecast is just how close Trudy gets to Mexico. A track closer to the coast may result in much more weakening than shown here, while a track further offshore may preserve Trudy's intensity, similar to what we saw with Simon earlier this week. The second part of the NHC intensity forecast falls back closer to the guidance mean. Given the proximity of Trudy's track to Mexico, this is also a lower confidence intensity forecast after the next 48 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts. A Tropical Storm Watch has now been issued for a portion of the southwestern Mexican coast, and additional watches will likely be required further up the coast later today. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the weekend across Colima and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 13.1N 101.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 13.6N 101.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 14.6N 102.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 16.7N 103.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 18.0N 104.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 19.4N 105.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 20.2N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 20.3N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin]]>
• Hurricane Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
  Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 151457 PWSEP1 HURRICANE TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 1500 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 20(38) X(38) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 7(31) X(31) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 61(62) 3(65) X(65) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 1(32) 1(33) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 70(80) 2(82) X(82) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 48(50) 1(51) X(51) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 36(42) 9(51) X(51) X(51) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>
• Hurricane Trudy Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2026 15:29:03 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Simon (EP5/EP202026)
  ...SMALL SIMON SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 2:00 PM MST Thu Oct 15 the center of Simon was located near 19.3, -108.2 with movement NW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Simon

• Tropical Storm Simon Public Advisory Number 34
  Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 759 WTPZ35 KNHC 152041 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Simon Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 ...SMALL SIMON SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 108.2W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to monitor Simon. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 108.2 West. Simon is moving toward the northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is forecast to begin by Friday and continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Simon is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by this weekend. Simon is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Through early Saturday, Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches over portions of the state of Baja California Sur. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by Simon could affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin]]>
• Tropical Storm Simon Forecast Advisory Number 34
  Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 152039 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.2W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.2W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.8N 108.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.8N 110.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 111.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.1N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>
• Tropical Storm Simon Forecast Discussion Number 34
  Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152043 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Simon Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 Simon continues to produce an area of deep convection, though this activity has lacked a ton of organization today, and appears to still be displaced to the west of the center of circulation. A RCM-2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) pass that became available after the prior advisory indicated that most of this convective activity was also occurring outside of its radius of maximum winds, and has done little to aid the small circulation. In fact, the peak winds retrieved from the SAR was only 47 kt. This information, combined with a Metop-B scatterometer pass that had a peak wind of 39 kt is justification to bring Simon's intensity down to 45 kt this advisory, and this may still be generous. Simon has been drifting rather aimlessly today, and my best guess at an estimated motion is 320/1 kt. It has been a tough few days trying to forecast Simon's track, but the model guidance this cycle is finally coming into better agreement showing that as Simon becomes a more vertically shallow cyclone, it will primarily be steered by the low-level flow. To that end, a weak low-level trough is forecast to drop equatorward to the west of Simon as a strong pressure gradient develops over northern Mexico as surface ridging builds in behind a frontal boundary. This flow should help to finally draw Simon back to the northwest with a speed up in its forward motion. The latest NHC track forecast is shifted once again a little further west but also faster, following the latest trends in the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). While the shear over Simon is currently low, it has not taken advantage of these more favorable conditions, likely due to the proximity of dry air preventing the convection from organizing. The vertical wind shear is soon expected to increase significantly out of the southwest as a deep-layer trough located over the southwestern United States cuts off and retrogrades back westward. Simon has already been sensitive to less than pristine conditions, and this increase in shear will likely be the storm's demise. The latest NHC forecast now shows gradual weakening continuing over the next 24-36 h, with Simon becoming a remnant low in 48 h, and fully dissipating in 72 h. If the latest ECMWF forecast is correct, this could occur sooner than forecasted here. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 19.3N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 19.8N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 20.8N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 22.0N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 23.1N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin]]>
• Tropical Storm Simon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
  Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 786 FOPZ15 KNHC 152041 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>
• Tropical Storm Simon Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2026 20:44:17 GMT ]]>