000ABNT20 KNHC 181142TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Off the East Coast of the United States:A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form later today or tonight off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically through the middle of this week, and some subtropical development is possible during that time. Regardless of development, this system will cause high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East Coast. Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.&&High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Servicecan be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php$$Forecaster Beven

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:00:11 GMT

000ABPZ20 KNHC 181138TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 AM PDT Sun Oct 18 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Trudy, located offshore of southwestern Mexico.South of Southern Mexico:An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of southern Mexico within a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of this week while it moves westward to west-northwestward, well south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.$$Forecaster Adams

Hurricane for

• Summary for Hurricane Trudy (EP1/EP212026)
  ...TRUDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 5:00 AM MST Sun Oct 18 the center of Trudy was located near 18.9, -106.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Trudy

• Hurricane Trudy Public Advisory Number 20a
  Issued at 500 AM MST Sun Oct 18 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 181141 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Trudy Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 500 AM MST Sun Oct 18 2026 ...TRUDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 106.6W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings for the coast of Mexico south of Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Trudy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Trudy was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 106.6 West. Trudy is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will remain near the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico through this evening and then move south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning, but rapid weakening is forecast to begin by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are likely in the Hurricane Warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the mainland Mexico portion of the Tropical Storm Warning area this morning, and in the Islas Marias this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inch amounts with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest Mexican coast in Guerrero and Nayarit. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Trudy, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves is likely in areas of onshore winds within the warning areas. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven]]>
• Hurricane Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 20
  Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 18 2026 690 WTPZ21 KNHC 180831 TCMEP1 HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 0900 UTC SUN OCT 18 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.3W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.3W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.5N 106.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.2N 107.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.4N 107.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.1N 109.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.6N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 106.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI]]>
• Hurricane Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 20
  Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Oct 18 2026 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180833 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 200 AM MST Sun Oct 18 2026 Trudy has strengthened a little more tonight. Satellite images show that the eye has become more distinct and deep convection is better organized, especially on the west side of the circulation. The latest satellite intensity estimates have increased slightly, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 90 kt, in agreement with the TAFB Dvorak classification. The outer rainbands are affecting portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico, likely producing heavy rains and strong winds. These conditions will likely persist for several more hours. A partial ASCAT-B pass that caught the east side of the circulation suggests that the hurricane has a slightly smaller wind field than previously estimated, and the initial wind radii have been adjusted based on that information. Trudy has been moving northwestward at about 9 kt over the past 12 hours. This motion is expected to continue today, but a significant slowdown is forecast after that as the system weakens and is steered by the lighter low- to mid-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the left toward the latest EMXI, GDMI, and HCCA models. On the expected track, the hurricane will begin pulling away from southwest and west-central Mexico tonight and then move slowly south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday. The hurricane could strengthen a little more this morning, but a notable increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry and stable air should cause Trudy to begin weakening later today. Given the expected hostile atmospheric conditions, the weakening is expected to be rapid, and Trudy is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by 60 hours and dissipate in 3 or 4 days. In fact, it would not be surprising if both of these occurred sooner than predicted. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are likely within the hurricane warning area today. 2. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves is likely in areas of onshore winds within the warning areas. 3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will continue across the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Nayarit today. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 4. Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico and west-central Mexico during the next few days, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 18.6N 106.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 19.5N 106.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 20.2N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 20.4N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 21.1N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z 21.6N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi]]>
• Hurricane Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
  Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 18 2026 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 180832 PWSEP1 HURRICANE TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 0900 UTC SUN OCT 18 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI]]>
• Hurricane Trudy Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026 09:22:45 GMT ]]>