000ABNT20 KNHC 140528TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have continued to become less organized. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the possibility of development is decreasing. Regardless of development, interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of this system since gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across these islands Friday night and Saturday.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.$$Forecaster Beven

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:37:49 GMT

681 ABPZ20 KNHC 140530TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Lala, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hernan, located well west of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. South of Mexico:An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico early next week.  Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while the system moves westward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.Western part of the eastern Pacific:An area of low pressure could form well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula early next week. Gradual additional development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally westward.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.&&Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Hernan are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Hernan are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.$$Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Hernan (EP3/EP082026)
  ...HERNAN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 the center of Hernan was located near 16.8, -132.0 with movement S at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Hernan

• Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 5
  Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 ...HERNAN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 132.0W ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 132.0 West. Hernan is moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a turn towards the south-southwest on Friday. A gradual turn to the west is forecast on Saturday with that motion continuing through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Hernan is forecast to become a tropical depression on Friday and a post-tropical cyclone early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake]]>
• Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 5
  Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2026 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 132.0W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 132.0W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 131.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.2N 132.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.8N 133.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.4N 134.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 132.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE]]>
• Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 5
  Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140232 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Convection associated with Hernan has fallen apart during the past several hours, with only some cirrus debris clouds near the center, though there is a large area of thunderstorm well to the northeast. Assuming some spin down of the winds from an earlier scatterometer pass, the initial intensity is set to 35 kt. Gradual weakening is anticipated due to continued strong shear, though it could be offset somewhat by the system moving across warmer waters. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, which is near the consensus. Models suggest no deep convection will occur after 24 hours, so remnant low status is indicated thereafter. Hernan remains headed slowly southward as a low-level ridge builds between Tropical Storms Hernan and Lala. Hernan should turn gradually southwestward and westward due to the ridge between the tropical cyclones weakening and the large-scale eastern Pacific high providing a more westward steering current. The latest guidance is faster and a bit south of the last cycle, and the official forecast is adjusted in that direction. The global models show the cyclone opening up into a trough in about 3 days, close to the time the remnants enter the Central Pacific. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 16.8N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 16.2N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 15.8N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 15.4N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 15.0N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1200Z 15.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake]]>
• Tropical Storm Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
  Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2026 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE]]>
• Tropical Storm Hernan Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2026 03:28:33 GMT ]]>