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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
257 ABNT20 KNHC 250529TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Gonzalo, located about 160 miles east-southeast of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, and on Tropical Storm Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the Azores.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.&&Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.  Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.$$Forecaster Hagen

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)
    ...FAY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 9:00 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 the center of Fay was located near 29.8, -42.8 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Fay

  • Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 21
    Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 432 WTNT31 KNHC 250846 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...FAY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 42.8W ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 42.8 West. Fay is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-southwest then southwest at a slower forward speed is expected over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next 12 hours. Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>
  • Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 21
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 431 WTNT21 KNHC 250846 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.8W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.8W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.7N 44.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.3N 45.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.0N 45.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 46.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 27.6N 46.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 42.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>
  • Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 21
    Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 250847 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 Fay continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and to the west of the low-level center this morning, remaining resilient to the dry mid-level environment. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 35 to 48 kt. Using these estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 45 kt for this advisory. Given warm sea-surface temperatures of 27-28 deg C, some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 h or so. However, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase later tonight. As the shear increases and the mid-levels remain quite dry, with relative humidity values in the mid 30s, Fay should gradually weaken. The system is expected to lose deep convection once again over the weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered intensity guidance. The only change to the forecast is that dissipation has been delayed, as the global models continue to show the remnant low meandering over the central Atlantic for a few more days. The storm continues to move westward with an estimated initial motion of 270/5 kt along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then southwest is expected to being in a day or so as Fay becomes a vertically shallow cyclone and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 29.8N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 29.7N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 29.3N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 27/1800Z 29.0N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 28.5N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 27.6N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>
  • Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 250847 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>
  • Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

    Tropical Storm Fay 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2026 08:48:55 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072026)
    ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TODAY... As of 8:00 AM CVT Fri Sep 25 the center of Gonzalo was located near 14.2, -22.4 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

  • Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 800 AM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026 003 WTNT32 KNHC 250841 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072026 800 AM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 22.4W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cabo Verde Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 22.4 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the next several days, with a slower forward speed this weekend. On the forecast track, the center will pass near or over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, with a gradual weakening trend forecast to begin this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Cabo Verde Islands within the warning area in a few hours, and continue through the day and into tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Gonzalo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches (30 to 75 mm) across the eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and on Saturday with less than 1 inch anticipated for the western side of the island chain. Heavy rain along the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau, The Gambia, and Senegal will produce totals between 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated higher amounts along the immediate coast. SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM CVT. Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>
  • Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250841 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072026 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 22.4W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 22.4W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 22.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.4N 22.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 23.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 23.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 24.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.5N 24.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.0N 24.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 22.0N 24.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 22.2N 25.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 22.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>
  • Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 2
    Issued at 800 AM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026 958 WTNT42 KNHC 250842 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072026 800 AM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026 Gonzalo remains an asymmetric tropical storm, with wind shear displacing the deep convection over the eastern and southern portions of the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS are around 35-40 kt. Given the earlier scatterometer data depicting 40 kt and a steady satellite appearance, the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 40 kt. The initial motion remains north-northwestward at 340/8 kt. The storm is expected to continue moving north-northwestward during the next couple of days, steered by the flow of a deep mid-level trough over the eastern Atlantic. As the trough lifts northwestward later in the forecast period, the steering currents will become very weak, and Gonzalo is forecast to slow down and meander over the eastern Atlantic. On the forecast track, the center will pass near or over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. The official NHC track forecast is lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and GDMI aids. Gonzalo has about 12 to 18 hours within a marginally conducive environment for some strengthening, with sea surface temperatures near 27-28 deg C. After that time, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, becoming fairly strong by day 2. Along the forecast track, sea surface temperatures will also cool, and mid-level relative humidity values will begin to drop into the 50, and then 40 percent range. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory. Global model-simulated infrared satellite imagery depicts Gonzalo becoming devoid of deep convection in about 2 to 3 days. Thus, the forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low at that time, and it is expected to remain a remnant low through day 5. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect, today and will continue through tonight. 2. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern islands of Cabo Verde and the western coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau to Senegal today through Saturday. Areas of flash flooding will be possible along the western coast of Africa with some isolated flash flood concerns for the eastern islands of Cabo Verde. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 14.2N 22.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 15.4N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 17.0N 23.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.5N 23.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 19.8N 24.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 20.5N 24.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 21.0N 24.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 24.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 22.2N 25.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>
  • Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 013 FONT12 KNHC 250841 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072026 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PRAIA CVI 34 17 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SANTA MARIA CV 34 80 5(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SANTA MARIA CV 50 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>
  • Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics

    Tropical Storm Gonzalo 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2026 08:43:19 GMT ]]>

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
323 ABPZ20 KNHC 250537TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Polo, located a couple hundred miles offshore of Manzanillo, Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo, located a couple hundred miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii.South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week. The system is forecast to move generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.$$Forecaster Evans/Hagen

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Odalys (EP1/EP162026)
    ...ODALYS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 the center of Odalys was located near 17.6, -124.0 with movement NE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Odalys

  • Hurricane Odalys Public Advisory Number 21
    Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 250854 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...ODALYS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 124.0W ABOUT 985 MI...1580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 124.0 West. Odalys is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), with a turn to the north expected to occur over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Odalys is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This intensity is expected to persist overnight, before gradual weakening is forecast heading into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen]]>
  • Hurricane Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 21
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 250854 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 124.0W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. 4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 124.0W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 123.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.7N 123.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.7N 123.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.9N 123.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.5N 122.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.7N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 124.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN]]>
  • Hurricane Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 21
    Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250856 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Odalys's eye structure has become much better defined on satellite imagery since the last advisory. The latest objective Dvorak intensity analyses from UW-CIMSS estimates Odalys's strength to be around 100 kt, while TAFB's subjective analysis rated the storm at 5.5/102 kt. Given Odalys's improved satellite presentation and these estimates, the initial intensity was raised to 100 kt. The initial motion has shifted toward the northeast, or at 040/5 kt. Odalys's trajectory is becoming increasingly influenced by a mid- to upper-level trough to its north-northwest, which, combined with its location on the eastern flank of the east Pacific subtropical high, should drive an almost due north motion over the next couple of days. Forecast models continue to exhibit large discrepancies in track after 48 h as Odalys's forward motion decreases and Hurricane Polo's wind field becomes an increasing influence. The overall trend across models, however, is to turn Odalys to the north sooner, so the latest NHC track forecast reflects this, following a blend of HCCA and GDMI and thus shifting the track to the left from the previous forecast. Given Odalys's improved presentation on satellite imagery, the intensity forecast was left relatively steady through the first 24 h. However, the storm is expected to encounter a hostile environment shortly thereafter, characterized by increasing vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and cooler SSTs. As a result, a steady weakening trend is expected heading into the weekend, with Odalys forecast to become post tropical by the end of the weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast generally falls in line with the model consensus. Moisture from both Odalys and Polo will be carried a long distance into the southwestern U.S. this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.6N 124.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.0N 123.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 19.7N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 20.7N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 21.9N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 28/0600Z 22.5N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 29/0600Z 21.7N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen]]>
  • Hurricane Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 250855 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 125W 34 X 10(10) 9(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN]]>
  • Hurricane Odalys Graphics

    Hurricane Odalys 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2026 08:57:50 GMT ]]>

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Polo (EP2/EP172026)
    ...POLO REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STATUS... As of 2:00 AM MST Fri Sep 25 the center of Polo was located near 17.2, -107.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 929 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

Hurricane Polo

  • Hurricane Polo Public Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250855 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 ...POLO REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STATUS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 107.5W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 107.5 West. Polo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest on Saturday and north on Sunday. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach Baja California Sur on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next 12 to 24 hours. Weakening should begin by Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb (27.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward Baja California Sur today and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen]]>
  • Hurricane Polo Forecast Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250855 TCMEP2 HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.5W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. 4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.5W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.3N 108.9W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.6N 110.7W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 112.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.3N 113.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 26.4N 111.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 29.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 107.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN]]>
  • Hurricane Polo Forecast Discussion Number 19
    Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250856 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 Since the previous advisory, Polo's eyewall and core cloud-top temperatures have cooled with a very wide and complete ring of cloud-top temperatures below -70C surrounding the eye, with a growing area of cloud-top temperatures colder than -75C surrounding most of the eye. In addition, GOES-18 infrared eye temperatures have warmed significantly since the previous advisory, recently measured near 19C. The latest TAFB Dvorak number is 7.0/140 kt, while DMINT and SATCON have been hovering around 135-136 kt. Based on the improved structure, Polo is assigned an initial intensity of 140 kt for this advisory, making it a category 5 hurricane again. The initial motion is westward, or 275 degrees at 10 kt, so this motion continues to take the hurricane farther away from mainland western Mexico. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Polo is currently being steered by the flow on the south side of a well-defined mid-tropospheric ridge that is building westward over northern Mexico. This steering regime should continue through today. After that, a mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the northeastern Pacific should prevent the ridge from building farther west, with Polo is expected to recurve northward and northeastward around the western periphery of the ridge. The track guidance is generally in agreement on this scenario, although there are still notable differences in forward speed among the models in the 3-5 day time frame. The official forecast is similar to the previous one through 72 hours, but is faster toward the northeast at day 4-5 compared to the previous forecast. The NHC forecast is slightly to the left of the HCCA and Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean through 96 hours, but is to the right of the simple consensus TVCN. Confidence is high that Polo will make landfall in Baja California Sur and then mainland Mexico, after moving through the Gulf of California. Polo will continue to move over very warm waters and in a low vertical wind shear environment through today. Fluctuations in intensity are possible through today. By Saturday, a gradual weakening trend is expected to begin due to some increase in shear. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance, and shows the system still near major hurricane strength while it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Rapid weakening is expected when the cyclone crosses the peninsula and moves into mainland Mexico due to land interaction and a further increase in vertical wind shear. It should be noted that moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be carried a long distance into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.2N 107.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 17.3N 108.9W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 17.6N 110.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.5N 112.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 21.7N 113.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 23.3N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 26.4N 111.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 29.0N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen]]>
  • Hurricane Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250855 PWSEP2 HURRICANE POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 1(23) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 1(24) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 56(63) 4(67) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 9(34) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 69(69) 20(89) X(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 10(10) 31(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 8(31) 1(32) X(32) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 9(25) 1(26) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN]]>
  • Hurricane Polo Graphics

    Hurricane Polo 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2026 08:57:57 GMT ]]>