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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 100534
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Fay, located just offshore of the Virginia coast.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five 
days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header
WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO 
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062020)
    ...FAY CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ... As of 2:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 the center of Fay was located near 36.7, -74.9 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Fay

  • Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 2A
    Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100535 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...FAY CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.7N 74.9W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 74.9 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast today and move inland over the mid-Atlantic or the northeast United States late tonight or on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today and tonight while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force plane is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 8 inches along and near its track across the mid Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area today and spread northward through the warning area tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor flooding is possible along the coast for portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 851 WTNT21 KNHC 100238 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 74.8W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 74.8W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 37.7N 74.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 43.0N 73.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 46.7N 71.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 50.2N 69.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 74.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 2
    Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100239 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation center of Fay is elongated northeast-southwest, with satellite and radar data showing a strong convective cluster at the northeastern end of the elongation. There have been no observations near the center during the past few hours, and the initial intensity is held at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. An Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Fay. Due to the elongated center and the possibility the center is trying to re-form near the convection, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 010/7. There is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and essentially no change to the forecast track. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast until dissipation between 60-72 h. The guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast lies close to the various consensus models. Fay is currently over the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear caused by an upper-level trough to its west and southwest. This is producing an environment that should allow a little strengthening for the next 12-24 h. After that, the storm should weaken as it passes over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, followed by landfall over the northeastern United States. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for extratropical transition between 48-60 h and dissipation shortly thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 36.3N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 37.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 43.0N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 46.7N 71.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1200Z 50.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 100238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 7( 7) 22(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X 12(12) 19(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ISLIP NY 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 19(19) 13(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 11(11) 14(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X 10(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NEWARK NJ 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TRENTON NJ 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 20(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 21(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 11 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 24 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) OCEAN CITY MD 50 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) WALLOPS CDA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
    Tropical Storm Fay 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 05:36:56 GMT

    Tropical Storm Fay 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 03:24:48 GMT ]]>

Local Statement for Philadelphia, PA
Issued at  1109 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Local Statement for New York City, NY
Issued at  1205 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 100535
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Cristina, located just west-southwest of Socorro Island.

A strong tropical wave located over Central America is expected to 
move over the far eastern Pacific in a day or so. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this 
system, and a tropical depression will likely form early next week 
while it moves quickly westward well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
    ...CRISTINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 the center of Cristina was located near 18.4, -111.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristina

  • Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 14
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...CRISTINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 111.9W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 111.9 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual bend to the west is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina could become a hurricane on Friday before weakening begins over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 14
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.9W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.9W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.1N 113.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.8N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.6N 124.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 127.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 22.2N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 22.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 14
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Cristina's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat during the past several hours, with deep convection on the wane and some evidence of dry air near the center. Still, microwave data does show a large banding pattern with a mid-level core present, suggesting there might be more than meets the eye than just conventional satellite imagery. The current intensity of the storm is difficult to ascertain, as estimates from generally credible techniques range from 45 kt to 77 kt on this package. It is probably best to keep the initial wind speed 60 kt for now, and we will see if the intensity becomes more clear overnight. The storm has about a day over marginally warm waters in light shear conditions before SSTs begin to cool, and eventually more significant dry air is entrained into the inner core. Thus some strengthening is anticipated on Friday, and Cristina should start a gradual weakening over the weekend through early next week. The cyclone should have a challenging time producing convection over sub-23C waters, which happens in about 72 hours, so that is the time chosen for post-tropical transition. This is earlier than the previous forecast and best matches a GFS/ECMWF blend. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast with guidance in good agreement at this time. Christina continues moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen over the next day or so, which should force the storm in a similar direction but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The forecast track is a little slower than the previous one at long range, otherwise the track is basically an update of the earlier track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 18.4N 111.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 19.1N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.8N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.6N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 21.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0000Z 22.2N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 22.5N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 100234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 10 23(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA CLARION 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 4 84(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 20N 115W 50 X 51(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 19(19) 15(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
    Tropical Storm Cristina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:35:53 GMT

    Tropical Storm Cristina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 03:31:49 GMT ]]>