247 
ABNT20 KNHC 300508
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east of the northern 
Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rina, located over the 
central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)
  ...PHILIPPE FORECAST TO LINGER JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 30 the center of Philippe was located near 17.1, -55.9 with movement SSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Philippe

• Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 28
  Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 000 WTNT32 KNHC 300835 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 ...PHILIPPE FORECAST TO LINGER JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 55.9W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 55.9 West. Philippe is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow turn toward the southwest and west is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Philippe could become a hurricane early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
• Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 28
  Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 000 WTNT22 KNHC 300834 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 55.9W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 55.9W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.9N 56.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.9N 56.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.3N 57.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.0N 58.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.7N 59.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 24.1N 59.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 28.1N 56.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 55.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
• Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 28
  Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 000 WTNT42 KNHC 300835 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter crew investigated Philippe a few hours ago and found that the minimum pressure had fallen to 999 mb, however the maximum winds do not appear to have increased. The maximum flight-level wind was 46 kt at 700 mb, and SFMR readings outside of deep convection were as high as 45 kt (SFMR measurements higher than 50 kt appeared questionable due to coincident heavy rain). The low-level center remains located on the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to continued shear. The reconnaissance fixes showed that Philippe has been moving toward the south-southwest (200 degrees) at about 4 kt. The storm has moved a little farther south than expected, possibly due to a more pronounced binary interaction with Tropical Storm Rina about 450 n mi to its east-northeast. As the interaction continues, Philippe is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then northwest during the next few days. However, there is still quite a bit of model spread in how far west Philippe will get before it turns, and the ECMWF and HAFS-B models in particularly bring the storm very close to the northern Leeward Islands in about 48 hours. The NHC track forecast has been shifted west of the previous prediction and lies just to the west of the TVCA consensus aid. It is noteworthy that several models and ensemble members still lie west of the new forecast, and it's possible that additional adjustments may be required in future forecast cycles. All models show Philippe accelerating toward the north and north-northeast by days 4 and 5, steered by the flow between a mid-level high over the central Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic. The intensity forecast remains tricky and is complicated by competing positive and negative environmental factors. On one hand, moderate-to-strong northwesterly shear is likely to continue at least for the next 48 hours. However, the magnitude of the shear will depend on Philippe's exact location, and it could also be offset by a more diffluent upper-level environment. Since the storm has already been overachieving in the sheared environment, the NHC intensity forecast shows gradual strengthening during the next few days, and is near or just below the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids through 60 hours. The atmosphere could become more favorable for strengthening after that time, and the NHC forecast now shows Philippe reaching hurricane intensity while it recurves toward the subtropical Atlantic. It's worth noting that this new forecast is still on the conservative side, and that many of the intensity models and consensus aids are at least 20 kt higher on days 4 and 5. Only the ECMWF and its SHIPS and LGEM derivatives remain on the weaker end of the scale and don't bring Philippe to hurricane strength. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 17.1N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 16.9N 56.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 16.9N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 17.3N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 18.0N 58.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 19.2N 59.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 20.7N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 24.1N 59.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 28.1N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
• Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
  Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 000 FONT12 KNHC 300835 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
• Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 08:37:19 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 08:37:19 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Rina (AT3/AL182023)
  ...RINA HOLDS STEADY BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 30 the center of Rina was located near 20.9, -49.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Rina

• Tropical Storm Rina Public Advisory Number 8
  Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 000 WTNT33 KNHC 300836 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 ...RINA HOLDS STEADY BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 49.5W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 49.5 West. Rina is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a general west-northwest to northwest motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rina is forecast to gradually weaken over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci ]]>
• Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Advisory Number 8
  Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 000 WTNT23 KNHC 300835 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 49.5W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 49.5W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 49.1W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.7N 50.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.9N 52.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.2N 54.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.6N 56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 49.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI ]]>
• Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 8
  Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 000 WTNT43 KNHC 300836 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 Rina remains a sheared tropical cyclone. Deep bursts of convection have been flaring to the southeast of an exposed low-level circulation. However, recent trends in geostationary satellite imagery have shown the convection shrinking in areal coverage and becoming shallower. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T3.0 (45 kt) and T2.5 (35 kt) from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 45 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer pass and the latest TAFB estimate. It is unlikely Rina will regain significant convective organization. Global model guidance indicates that the deep-layer vertical wind shear is likely to remain strong for the entirety of the forecast period. Simulated satellite imagery shows convection attempting to re-form near the center for the next couple of days, but it is quickly stripped away by the strong upper-level winds. The NHC intensity forecast shows Rina gradually weakening and becoming a remnant low in 48 h. Rina is moving to the west-northwest at 9 kt. Tropical Storm Philippe, to its west-southwest, and a subtropical mid-level ridge to the northeast are likely to steer Rina generally west-northwestward to northwestward through 48 h. Only minor adjustments have been made to the latest track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 20.9N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 21.7N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 22.9N 52.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 24.2N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 26.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1800Z 27.6N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci ]]>
• Tropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
  Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 000 FONT13 KNHC 300836 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI ]]>
• Tropical Storm Rina Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 08:37:50 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 08:37:50 GMT ]]>

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300510
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the coast 
of southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are 
expected to support gradual development of the disturbance, and a 
tropical depression could form during the middle to later part of 
the week while the system moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 30 Sep 2023 08:39:52 GMT