000
ABNT20 KNHC 101729
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave 
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands has decreased since yesterday.  This system is expected to 
move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the 
tropical Atlantic during the next several days, and significant 
development is becoming less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 10 Aug 2022 23:08:26 GMT

258 
ABPZ20 KNHC 102308
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Howard, located about 750 miles west of the southern tip of 
the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Satellite-derived wind data from earlier this afternoon indicate 
that a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico has an elongated 
circulation without a well-defined center.  However, the low 
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend 
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph, 
well offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Howard (EP4/EP092022)
  ...HOWARD FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 the center of Howard was located near 23.9, -121.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Howard

• Tropical Storm Howard Public Advisory Number 18
  Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 102036 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 ...HOWARD FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 121.3W ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 121.3 West. Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Howard is forecast to continue weakening and will likely become a post-tropical cyclone tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Onderlinde ]]>
• Tropical Storm Howard Forecast Advisory Number 18
  Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 10 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 102035 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 2100 UTC WED AUG 10 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 121.3W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 121.3W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 120.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.7N 124.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.0N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 25.0N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 121.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/ONDERLINDE ]]>
• Tropical Storm Howard Forecast Discussion Number 18
  Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 102037 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 The infrared satellite appearance of Howard has continued to degrade this afternoon with little to no deep convection remaining. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB supports lowering the analyzed intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. Howard should continue to weaken this evening as it moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable environment. Numerical guidance suggests Howard will not reacquire any sustained deep convection, however, periodic brief pulses of convection are possible over the next 12 - 24 h. The official forecast shows Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone within the next 12 h, and it could happen as soon as this evening. The cyclone should open into a remnant trough by 60 h. Howard continues to move west-northwestward with an initial forward speed of 10 kt. A slight turn to the west is expected over the next two days before the cyclone dissipates. No substantial changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which remains based on the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 23.9N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 11/1800Z 24.7N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 25.0N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 25.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Onderlinde ]]>
• Tropical Storm Howard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
  Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 10 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 102036 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 2100 UTC WED AUG 10 2022 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/ONDERLINDE ]]>
• Tropical Storm Howard Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Aug 2022 20:38:07 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Aug 2022 21:22:29 GMT ]]>