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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000ABNT20 KNHC 212316TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Subtropical Storm Josephine, located a few hundred miles offshore of the United States Mid-Atlantic coast.Subtropical Central Atlantic:A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for further development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.&&Public Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.Forecast/Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.$$Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Subtropical
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Josephine (AT5/AL102026)
...JOSEPHINE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 21 the center of Josephine was located near 37.7, -69.4 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Josephine
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Subtropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220254 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026 ...JOSEPHINE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 69.4W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 69.4 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tomorrow, followed by an eastward motion on Friday and into the weekend. On the forecast track, Josephine should move away from the United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast while Josephine remains a subtropical storm through early Thursday. Further strengthening is likely later on Thursday, and Josephine could become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the northeastern United States coast through Thursday. See products issued by your local National Weather Service office for more details. COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide. Please refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for more information. SURF: Large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart]]> -
Subtropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220253 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102026 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 69.4W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. 34 KT.......360NE 110SE 170SW 240NW. 4 M SEAS....320NE 240SE 540SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 69.4W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 69.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 67.9W...SUBTROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 120SE 160SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.3N 64.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 160SE 160SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.2N 59.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...350NE 200SE 190SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 43.5N 55.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...360NE 210SE 180SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 44.1N 52.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 44.1N 48.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 180SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 69.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART]]> -
Subtropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220256 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026 Convection associated with Josephine has waned this evening. The latest satellite images show shallow to moderate convection in bands over the northern and western portions of the circulation. Despite its degraded satellite structure, partial scatterometer data show Josephine is still a powerful storm with a large radius of maximum wind and an asymmetric wind field. A band of 45-50 kt winds wraps around the northwest side of the system. Since the entire wind field was not sampled, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 55 kt for this advisory. Recent satellite fixes indicate Josephine is now moving slowly north-northeastward (015/5 kt). The storm is expected to accelerate to the northeast and east-northeast tomorrow as an upper-level trough amplifies over the Canadian Maritimes and the northeastern United States. Then, the low should become caught in mid-latitude westerlies and move eastward on Friday and into the weekend, with the center passing to the south of Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night. The track model guidance remains tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, generally falling between the corrected consensus (HCCA) and a simple average of the GFS/ECMWF models (GFEX). Josephine is unlikely to remain subtropical for long since the storm will encounter much cooler waters and stronger shear over the next 12-24 hours. However, the global models favor some near-term strengthening driven mostly by baroclinic processes and positive interaction with the approaching trough. This forecast shows Josephine becoming a hurricane-force, extratropical cyclone in 24 h, though it could lose subtropical characteristics even sooner. Gradual weakening is predicted beginning on Friday, and the updated forecast shows Josephine becoming absorbed by 96 h within a larger, extratropical low over the North Atlantic. Given the subtropical nature of this storm, the NHC intensity forecast continues to favor a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Since the coastal wind hazards with this system have been covered for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices, these products will remain in effect until the threat diminishes and the system moves farther away from the U.S. coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 37.7N 69.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL 12H 22/1200Z 38.8N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL 24H 23/0000Z 40.3N 64.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/1200Z 42.2N 59.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/0000Z 43.5N 55.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/1200Z 44.1N 52.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0000Z 44.1N 48.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart]]> -
Subtropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 000 FONT15 KNHC 220255 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102026 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 16(43) X(43) X(43) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 3( 3) 29(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 22(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 15(15) 72(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 17(17) 9(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) YARMOUTH NS 34 3 30(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ST JOHN NB 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MONTAUK POINT 34 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) $$ FORECASTER REINHART]]> -
Subtropical Storm Josephine Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2026 02:57:58 GMT ]]>
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
725 ABPZ20 KNHC 212319TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Wed Oct 21 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.Western Central Pacific:An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International Date Line, a few hundred miles west-southwest of Johnston Atoll late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.&&Public advisories on Tropical Storm Vance are issued under WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2. Forecast/advisories on Tropical Storm Vance are issued under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.$$Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Tropical
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Summary for Tropical Storm Vance (EP2/EP222026)
...VANCE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... As of 9:00 PM CST Wed Oct 21 the center of Vance was located near 9.6, -100.7 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Vance
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Tropical Storm Vance Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 220257 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 ...VANCE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 100.7W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 100.7 West. Vance is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and is expected to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward over the next few days, with a slight decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs]]> -
Tropical Storm Vance Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220256 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 100.7W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 100.7W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 100.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 9.8N 101.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.4N 102.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.9N 102.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.3N 103.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.5N 104.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 80SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 15.4N 105.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 80SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 105.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 100.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS]]> -
Tropical Storm Vance Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220258 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Vance continues to become better organized, with an expanding area of deep convection over the circulation and cloud-top temperatures as cold as -80 degrees C. The latest subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is T2.5/35 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 32 to 43 kt. Based on these estimates and the improving satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. The initial motion is estimated at 290/4 kt. The storm will begin to slow down as it turns northwest and then north-northwest, steered along the southern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, with a slight eastward adjustment at days 4 and 5 toward the latest GDMI, HCCA, and TVCN consensus aids. However, considerable cross-track spread remains among the guidance solutions at longer forecast ranges, likely related to differences in how the models depict the evolving synoptic pattern near the western United States. Consequently, confidence in the extended portion of the track forecast remains lower than normal. Environmental conditions appear very favorable for significant strengthening during the next couple of days, with warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and plenty of deep-layer moisture. SHIPS RII, DTOPS, and SDCON guidance continue to be supportive, suggesting over a 50 percent probability of extreme RI over the next 3 days, indicating a high-confidence scenario for a major hurricane to develop. Given the favorable environment and elevated rapid intensification probabilities, the updated NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. By day 4, Vance will begin to experience increased vertical wind shear while moving into slightly drier mid-level air, suggesting a weakening trend thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 9.6N 100.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 9.8N 101.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 10.4N 102.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 10.9N 102.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 11.5N 103.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 12.3N 103.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 13.5N 104.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 15.4N 105.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 16.7N 105.4W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs]]> -
Tropical Storm Vance Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220257 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 36(74) 4(78) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 32(44) 4(48) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 3(30) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 10N 100W 34 84 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS]]> -
Tropical Storm Vance Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2026 02:59:24 GMT ]]>