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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 251142
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
the Lesser Antilles.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
trough of low pressure that extends from the southern Florida
peninsula northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred
miles.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to
form within the next few days while the system moves slowly
northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United States.
Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina should
continue to monitor the progress of this system.  An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Dorian are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.  Forecast/Advisories on Dorian
are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
    ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED AS DORIAN CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 25 the center of Dorian was located near 11.2, -52.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Dorian

  • Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 5
    Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 878 WTNT35 KNHC 251448 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED AS DORIAN CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 52.9W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados and a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches could be issued later today for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 52.9 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning are by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 5
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 251448 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 52.9W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 52.9W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.3W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.5N 54.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.0N 56.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.7N 59.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N 61.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.6N 65.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 52.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 5
    Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 251449 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 The convective organization of Dorian has improved a little since the last advisory, as a more persistent area of central convection has formed along with increased, but ragged, outer banding. However, the various satellite intensity estimates remain clustered around 35 kt, and that remains the initial intensity. A combination of 1-minute GOES-16 visible imagery and microwave satellite data have helped pinpoint the center, and the initial motion is 280/12. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with a more northwestward motion possible thereafter as Dorian approaches an upper-level low pressure area forecast to be over the north-central Caribbean. The model guidance continues the previous trend of being south of and a bit faster than the previous runs, and as a result the new forecast track is again shifted a little to the south. The new forecast lies between the previous forecast and the various consensus models. However, it is south of the forecasts of the HWRF, the UKMET, and the UKMET Ensemble mean. Additional adjustments to the track may be required on the next advisory if the current model trends continue. While vertical wind shear is decreasing over Dorian, the cyclone still appears to be ingesting dry air based on the ragged convective pattern. Some dry air entrainment is expected to continue for the next few days, and based on this the new intensity forecast again calls for gradual strengthening through 72 h. This part of the intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast becomes low confidence after 72 h due to uncertainties in the amount of shear and land that Dorian will encounter. The new forecast calls for some weakening due to shear before Dorian moves over Hispaniola, followed by weakening to a depression due to passage over the island. However, the large range of possibilities includes both Dorian going north of Hispaniola and remaining a hurricane and the small cyclone dissipating completely over Hispaniola. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Barbados, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. Additional watches and warnings for other portions of the Lesser Antilles could be required later today. 2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola, but interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 11.2N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 11.5N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 12.0N 56.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 12.7N 59.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 13.5N 61.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 15.6N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 17.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 251448 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 13(31) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 2(23) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 10(29) 1(30) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) 1(24) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 7(31) 1(32) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 51(55) 2(57) X(57) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 19(37) X(37) X(37) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 11(46) X(46) X(46) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 9(60) X(60) X(60) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 8(51) X(51) X(51) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 38(39) 21(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
    Tropical Storm Dorian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 14:52:47 GMT

    Tropical Storm Dorian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 15:24:34 GMT ]]>

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251701
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ivo, located about 500 miles west-northwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Depression Ivo (EP5/EP102019)
    ...IVO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 the center of Ivo was located near 25.5, -117.4 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Ivo

  • Tropical Depression Ivo Public Advisory Number 18
    Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ivo Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 ...IVO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 117.4W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivo was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 117.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are affecting the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and portions of the southern California coastline. These swells are likely to continue through today and could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Ivo Forecast Advisory Number 18
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 117.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 117.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.7N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.5N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.3N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 117.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 18
    Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251433 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 340/10 kt, and that motion is forecast to continue today. A turn to the north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is still expected to occur on Monday, and that motion should continue into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close a blend of the consensus models HCCA, TVCN, and TVCX. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier ASCAT surface wind data. Although a small area of deep convection has redeveloped about 100 n mi north of the low-level center, that thunderstorm activity is too far away to provide any positive feedback onto the circulation. Thus, Ivo basically remains devoid of any significant organized convection, and this downward trend is expected to continue for the next 48 hours while the cyclone moves of waters cooler than 22C. As a result of the expected spin down of the shallow vortex, Ivo is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday. Although Ivo is weakening, significant swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to continue through the day and could cause rip currents, and gradually subside on Monday. See products from your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.5N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 26.7N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 27.5N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 28.3N 118.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Ivo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Ivo Graphics
    Tropical Depression Ivo 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 14:35:17 GMT

    Tropical Depression Ivo 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 15:31:16 GMT ]]>

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