000ABNT20 KNHC 241129TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa, located over the central Caribbean Sea.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Melissa (AT3/AL132025)
  ...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT MELISSA COULD BE REFORMING TO THE EAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 the center of Melissa was located near 15.7, -74.6 with movement ESE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Melissa

• Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 13
  Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241450 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT MELISSA COULD BE REFORMING TO THE EAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 74.6W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning may be required for Jamaica later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 74.6 West. Melissa may have reformed recently, with an estimated motion toward the east-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion turning to the northeast and then north is expected to begin later today and tonight. A westward turn is then forecast to begin on Saturday with that motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or just south of Jamaica early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast today, followed by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti later this weekend and Jamaica beginning late this weekend or early next week. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti tonight or Saturday and in Jamaica later this weekend. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 10 to 20 inches of rain to portions of southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Monday, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are expected across the rest of southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Monday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern Haiti. Across portions of northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected through Monday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible. Flooding impacts will likely increase across western Jamaica next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potential risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa's slow motion and large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how high the storm surge could reach. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin]]>
• Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 13
  Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025 640 WTNT23 KNHC 241449 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 1500 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 74.6W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 15SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 74.6W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 74.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 74.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N 75.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.6N 76.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 65SE 45SW 55NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.4N 76.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 65SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 140SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 74.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>
• Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 13
  Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 241459 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance that has been flying through Melissa this morning found the center significantly further to the east-southeast than what was observed last night. How much of this position is related to a real motion, or a center reformation is unclear at this time. The storm remains about the same on satellite imagery this morning, with a large burst of deep convection, primarily along its southeastern flank, with evidence of northwesterly shear still undercutting the outflow. A WSFM microwave pass shows very deep hot towers, but not with that much structure beyond that. In addition, there hasn't been a significant change to Melissa's intensity, with peak 850 mb flight level winds of 49 kt, and these winds support maintaining 40 kt intensity this advisory. As has been stated for the last few days, the lack of persistent steering currents, due to competing mid-level ridges to the southeast and northwest of Melissa, is responsible for the storm's very slow motion. This is likely to continue for the next day or so, and much of the system's motion could be just as influenced by center reformations during this time period. After 24 hours, the mid-level ridge located to the northwest is expected to strengthen to the north of Melissa, and the guidance is coming into better agreement on a very slow westward motion through 72 hours. Beyond that time frame, a strengthening mid-latitude trough expected to move into the Southeastern U.S., should provide an avenue for Melissa to escape the Caribbean Sea to the northeast by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance overall has shifted south over the first few days, but there is still substantial spread in solutions at the end of the forecast period, related to when and how fast Melissa turns to the northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is a little south of the prior one early on, but is shifted a little eastward in 4-5 days, roughly a blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI model aid solutions. On the forecast track, Melissa could potentially be near western Jamaica by day 4 and near or over southeastern Cuba by day 5, though timing still remains more uncertain than usual. The GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear guidance indicates the deep-layer shear is lower than yesterday, between 14-17 kt, but there still appears to be mid-level shear undercutting the outflow layer. Until Melissa also become better aligned vertically, any intensification is likely to be slow to occur over the next 12 h or so. After that, once Melissa's structure improves, environmental conditions still appear favorable for a period of rapid intensification (RI). Every single Google DeepMind member shows the system become a Category 4 hurricane or higher, and the uncertainty is more related on the timing of when RI occurs. After 96 hours, Melissa could weaken some due to the combined effects of land interaction, and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the higher end of the model solutions, but more or less in line with the latest GDMI guidance. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica on Saturday or Sunday. 2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period of time. This is a life-threatening situation and immediate preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. 3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 15.7N 74.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.9N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 16.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.5N 75.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 16.6N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 20.4N 76.7W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin]]>
• Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
  Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025 000 FONT13 KNHC 241450 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 1500 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) PT GALLINAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 11(15) 26(41) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 6(13) 6(19) 17(36) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 12(40) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 16(28) 30(58) 15(73) 9(82) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 17(36) 14(50) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 12(30) KINGSTON 34 X 7( 7) 27(34) 27(61) 19(80) 5(85) 2(87) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 24(43) 4(47) 4(51) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 4(23) 3(26) LES CAYES 34 X 11(11) 12(23) 5(28) 4(32) 2(34) 5(39) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 12(13) 9(22) 3(25) 3(28) 2(30) 6(36) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 1 9(10) 5(15) 3(18) 2(20) X(20) 2(22) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 5( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>
• Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Oct 2025 15:01:55 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Oct 2025 15:01:55 GMT ]]>

000ABPZ20 KNHC 241125TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 AM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Central East Pacific (EP92):Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located well south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.$$Forecaster Roberts

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 24 Oct 2025 15:06:13 GMT