372 ABNT20 KNHC 200501TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Beven

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 20 Jun 2025 09:58:33 GMT

340 ABPZ20 KNHC 200501TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin inland over southern Mexico.Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development after that time as the system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.$$Forecaster Gibbs/Beven

...ERICK DECAYS TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES... As of 9:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 18.0, -100.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 628 
WTPZ35 KNHC 200232
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025
 
...ERICK DECAYS TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA...
...THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 100.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick
was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 100.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph  
(20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue until the system 
dissipates over Mexico.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected, and the 
post-tropical low is expected to dissipate later tonight or early 
Friday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Erick can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches 
through the night mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals 
of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are 
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 1 
to 3 inches, with maximum totals of 5 inches, are expected across 
the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: A few wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur this
evening in squalls and in mountainous regions near the center
of Erick.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through
tonight.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be 
found in products issued by the Meteorological Service of Mexico.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025 202 
WTPZ25 KNHC 200232
TCMEP5
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025
0300 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 100.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 100.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 100.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 102.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 100.8W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN 
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 363 
WTPZ45 KNHC 200233
TCDEP5
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025
 
Erick has continued to rapidly weaken over Mexico, as the system is
no longer producing organized convection and the circulation has
become poorly defined.  Based on these developments, the cyclone is
downgraded to a remnant low pressure area and this will be the last
advisory. A 12-h forecast point is included, but the circulation
may well dissipate before 12 h.
 
Although Erick is no longer a tropical cyclone, heavy rains will
linger over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through
tonight.
 
This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center on this system.  Future information on this system
can be found in products from the Meteorological Service of Mexico.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erick will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
Southwest Mexico overnight. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides
are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 18.0N 100.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 12H  20/1200Z 18.7N 102.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025 309 
FOPZ15 KNHC 200233
PWSEP5
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025               
0300 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Jun 2025 02:35:38 GMT


 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Jun 2025 03:21:03 GMT